张文宏深夜发文谈应对奥密克戎：跑赢病毒只是时间问题！|张文宏

Zhang Wenhong, a Shanghai-based infectious disease specialist and a household name in China. /CFP

目前，新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株正在世界范围内引发新一波疫情。

12月17日凌晨，上海复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任张文宏发布微博称：《国际奥密克戎疫情扑朔迷离，中国有条不紊应对》。

张文宏表示，“动态清零”能力是当前最为关键的公共卫生策略。近期长三角、珠三角、西北地区频发德尔塔的散发与局部暴发病例，但是中国的“动态清零”策略已经被证实4周左右终能应对。

China is able to control current local outbreaks in about four weeks under the country's "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, Zhang Wenhong, a Shanghai-based infectious disease specialist and a household name in China, said on Friday.

In a post on China's Twitter-like Weibo, Zhang said that the policy is the most critical public health strategy at present, and China is proving able to control the current outbreaks in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and northwest region under the policy.

Screenshot of Zhang Wenhong's post on Weibo

张文宏还提到，奥密克戎出现之时，中国团队迅速在2-3周的时间里，通过科技力量，做出判断并做好了相应的应对策略。

“我们跑赢病毒只是时间而已，无需恐慌，”张文宏说。

"It is just a matter of time for us to beat the virus, there's no need to panic," he wrote. 

The expert also mentioned that Chinese scientists reacted quickly to the emergence of the Omicron variant, and were able to come up with strategies in two to three weeks to combat the new variant.

“动态清零”策略意味着什么？

那么，张文宏提及的“被国际广泛采纳用于奥密克戎的应对”的“动态清零”策略到底是什么？我们又为何要坚持呢？

所谓“动态清零”，是当前我国新冠肺炎疫情防控的总方针，它是指在现在情况下，当出现本土病例的时候，我国所采取的综合防控措施的一种集成，以快速扑灭疫情。

The "dynamic zero-COVID" policy is China's overall guideline for COVID-19 prevention and control, which refers to a slew of measures to swiftly stamp out new outbreaks when they happen.

在一些西方媒体的报道中，中国的“动态清零”策略听起来总有些极端，常常意味着“不接受新增感染”。

但实际上并非如此。

2021年12月11日，国家卫健委疫情应对处置工作领导小组专家组组长梁万年在国务院联防联控机制新闻发布会上表示，“动态清零”不是“零感染”，我们现在还没有能力不出现一例本土病例，但是我们有能力，也有信心，当发现有本土病例出现的时候，快速扑灭疫情。“动态清零”不是躺平，不是任由疫情发展，而是控制它、切断它。

Liang Wannian, head of the expert team on COVID-19 response and disposal at the National Health Commission (NHC), refuted the idea and further clarified the strategy at a press briefing last Saturday.

"'Dynamic zero-COVID' does not mean 'zero infection,' as currently we are unable to ensure that not a single local case occurs," Liang said.

It is China's overall guideline for COVID-19 prevention and control, which refers to a slew of measures to swiftly stamp out new outbreaks when they happened, he clarified.

The gist is to cut off the spread of new infections as soon as possible, instead of just letting go of the situation and allowing it to run out of control, he added.

"We have the ability and confidence to quickly eliminate every new rebound whenever new cases are detected. So this is what we want to emphasize, not to pursue 'zero infection,' but to wipe out new outbreaks as soon as possible," he explained.

也有一些人认为，中国为“动态清零”策略付出了高昂的代价。

而钟南山院士在上月接受 CGTN 采访时却表示，这是恰恰是一种成本相对较低的方法——“你不管它、放开它，成本就更高。”

Some argue that China's stringent approach has come at a high cost. Responding to that question in an interview with CGTN in early November, Zhong Nanshan said that it's a relatively low-cost approach.

"The cost of implementing the current 'zero transmission' strategy is quite high, indeed. But if you ignore the virus and just let go of the situation, the cost will be even higher," he said.

China has taken a "dynamic zero-COVID" policy to swiftly stamp out new outbreaks over the past two years. /CFP

通过“动态清零”策略，自去年4月以来，中国已迅速控制了40多次小规模的疫情反弹，并有效减少了与新冠相关的死亡人数。

11月28日，中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学首席专家吴尊友在参加“财经年会2022”时表示，如果不采取围堵清零，若中国的新冠肺炎发病率达到全球平均水平，将有4784万人感染，95万人死亡；如果达到金砖四国的发病率，将有5497万人感染，114万人死亡；如果达到美国、英国的发病率，将有2亿多人感染，300多万人死亡。

“动态清零”通过高效处置散发病例和聚集性疫情，实现以最小社会成本获得最大防控成效。

With the "dynamic zero-COVID" strategy, China has rapidly controlled over 40 sporadic coronavirus rebounds since last April when a large scale epidemic was basically eliminated in the country, and also effectively reduced COVID-19-related deaths.

Without its "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, China would have witnessed around 47.8 million cases and about 950,000 fatalities if it were to have the global infection rate, said Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), at an economic conference in Beijing in late November.

别恐慌，也不大意，积极配合防疫工作，主动接种疫苗，坚持“动态清零”……

正如张文宏的微博结尾所说：“我们将和国际社会一起度过最后一个寒冷的冬季，我们终会‘拨开云雾见天日,守得云开见月明’。”